Meteorologist Samantha Davies

Is our hurricane season over? We aren’t expecting any tropical development through at least Thanksgiving, and the season officially ends on November 30th. There are two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin, but at this time neither of the two show signs of development. You can see these tropical waves highlighted in the graphic below. These tropical waves are producing locally heavy rainfall to parts of South and Central America.

Our tropical season is coming to an end, but for others it’s just beginning. Australia’s tropical season is just getting started, and the first storm of the season has already formed. There is a tropical cyclone brewing northeast of Cairns, Australia. This system is expected to slowly strengthen, possibly making landfall as a category 2 storm.

The Australian tropical season runs from November through April, and it’s expected to be the worst tropical cyclone season since 1998-99 when the region saw 16 tropical storms. This forecast is according to a group of weather experts at University College London, and the UK’s Meteorological office known as Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). TSR predicted that up to 13 tropical storms would form, 7 of those would become severe, and 5 or 6 would hit the Australian mainland. Why the increased activity? It is primarily because of the La Nina weather pattern, currently happening. La Nina contributes to a more active tropical season in this region. This year it’s expected to be the strongest since 1999.