Bill Karins, Meteorologist

Our latest tropical system, Tropical Storm Noel, will come off the coast of Cuba late today and remain a weak tropical storm. After that it will have about 24 hours to strengthen before strong upper level winds push it out to sea.

So what does that mean for folks here in the U.S.? Well the upper level winds will turn Noel out to sea before the storm reaches South Florida. The worst effects from Noel in South Florida will be felt Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Even when Noel is closest to South Florida, the weather won't be much different than the weather Florida has seen the past two days.

Forecast path as of 11:30 a.m. EDT

The combination of Noel and a very strong area of high pressure over North Carolina is producing a strong gusty wind and large waves along the entire east coast of Florida. The current beach erosion from 10-15 foot waves and wind gusts up to 40 mph are not from T.S. Noel. But as Noel moves through the Bahamas, the wind and waves over South Florida will increase slightly.

MORE: Hurricane Central

The biggest news story I expect with Noel out of Florida will be the beach erosion. This is a back-to-back beach erosion event with the strong high first and then Noel. I don't expect any houses to fall into the sea but a good chunk of dunes and some backyards will get washed away. Florida will also be on the dry side of Noel so no heavy rain with flooding is forecasted. None of the reliable weather computer models takes Noel into Florida and judging from experience, I tend to agree.

-B.K.