Bill Karins, Meteorologist

A complex and very interesting weather scenario is playing out over Florida and the end result just may be Jerry. Two days ago a cold front and a tropical wave began to interact over the Bahamas. A very strong upper level low formed and is now the dominant weather player along the SW Florida coast. The strong low is expected to slowly drift westward and weaken over the next few days. This may allow a new surface low to form over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday.

The upper level winds will not be favorable for development of this low on Thursday but Friday could be a different story. This low is also going to have to deal with plenty of dry air over the Central Gulf. The water temperatures over the Gulf are plenty warm of course so that will not be a restriction. I expect that this low will remain weak on Thursday as it tries to become a warm core system. The best chance this storm has of becoming Jerry will be on Friday. The key to how strong it could get will be how long it remains over the Gulf Stream. The further south the low comes off Florida the stronger it could get. The further North, the weaker the system will be.

The worst cast scenario would be for the low to form off of Fort Meyers and then to move northeast over the warm loop current in the Gulf of Mexico. This would most likely yield a strong tropical storm or a low end Cat 1 hurricane.

The most likely scenario is for the low to develop off of Tampa Thursday. By Friday morning a Subtropical Depression or Subtropical Storm will form. This system would then head North/Northeastward. Since upper level winds will never be ideal for strengthening I do not expect any Huberto type surprises. On Friday the system will likely acquire enough tropical characteristics to get rid of the Sub label. Finally, on Saturday a tropical storm should make landfall in-between New Orleans and Coastal Alabama. Check back for more updates.