Gary Archibald, Weathercaster

In a span of two seeks the Atlantic Basin has produced two monster Category 5 hurricanes, first Dean that hammered away at St. Lucia and then made its way past Jamaica and the Cayman Islands delivering a solid tropical punch of stormy winds, heavy rains and excessive flooding as it moved further west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. Dean then proceeded to pound the rich cultural and tourist-bound area of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico).

Second, and now the current storm story of the last several days is Felix, also a strong category 5 hurricane as it made landfall over northern Nicaragua (right over the coastal town of Dakura) at approximately 7:55 am EDT Monday. With huge storm surge, wind gusts to 190 mph… Felix could devastate Central America with flooding, land and mudslides being responsible for probable casualties.

Meteorologists and forecasters alike have anticipated a very active (above-average) tropical season in the Atlantic for 2007. Indeed, so far that has been the case with respect to the aforementioned hurricanes Dean and Felix. The next named storm will be Gabrielle. Will it be a CAT 5? Statistically, not likely. However, on the heels of Dean, the expectation of yet another Category 5 hurricane forming so soon after the fact – which became Felix was eye-opening.

More storms are coming before this season is over. Will they all reach the most powerful categorization – that too is statistically not likely… but recall how 2005 unfolded with three devastating CAT 5 storms – Wilma, Rita, and Katrina. So far Dean and Felix have been introduced. Dean was deadly and destructive. As of this posting, it remains to be seen what Felix will do in terms of damage to life and property in Central America. It does not look good. Our thoughts, hopes and prayers are with all of those affected by Felix at this hour and through the days ahead.

Next up, a wave off of the southeast US coast is heading out into the open warm waters of the Atlantic – it may get organized and work its way back toward the Carolina coast…or perhaps motion northward.

And let us not forget that tropical storms and depressions can inflict damage too. Henriette is lingering just south of the Baja coast, will likely strengthen to a CAT 1 hurricane over the next day or two and then move northward into the direction of Cabo San Lucas and Loreto. Heavy rains and flooding are a major threat to the region.

Obviously, a lot more tropical activity lies ahead. We’ll keep you best informed here at WeatherPlus.

GA