Bill Karins, Meteorologist

The chances of a purely tropical system hitting the Gulf Coast is looking very slim. The most likely scenario brings a subtropical depression or a weak subtropical storm to the Louisiana coastline on Saturday. The hurricane hunters investigated this system Thursday afternoon and found a rather disorganized area of low pressure with very little thunderstorm activity nearby.

These are the characteristics of a non-tropical low-pressure storm system. This storm now has less than 48 hours to go from non-tropical to tropical and then to intensify. It also has to deal with dry air still wrapping around the upper level low.

Even if this system never gets organized and becomes “Jerry”, the weather will not be great along the Northern Gulf Friday Night and Saturday. The winds will not cause any problems but the rain will be heavy at times. There will also be minor tidal rises along the beaches.

It has been such a dry summer in the South that no river or lake flooding is expected from the heavy rain. Only poor drainage street flooding should occur. The heavy rain will move out of the region and head for Arkansas on Sunday. -BK