It Only Takes One Day
It was an area of showers and storms we had been following for about 96 hours...then it took a drastic turn, becoming Humberto. Humberto is part of a very rare class of storms that have intensified in less than 24 hours.
The timeline of development was more than impressive:
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Wednesday 5am: organized area of thunderstorms
Wednesday 8am: Tropical Depression
Wednesday 11am: Tropical Storm
Thursday 12:15 am: Category 1 Hurricane
Thursday 2am: landfall between Galveston, TX and Beaumont, TX
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While the development of the storm could be called shocking, there have been other storms to intensify almost as fast:
1982 Alberto
1981 Harvey
1969 Blanche
Alberto, Harvey & Blanche all went from Depression to Category 1 Hurricane in 18 hours or under.
What separates Humberto from the other storms according to the National Hurricane Center "is that no other tropical cyclone has ever reached this intensity at a faster rate near landfall." This of course can have drastic implications as many people many not be aware of the storm bearing down so close to where they live.
The biggest problem with forecasting Humberto yesterday comes to the intensification. While the science has improved so much when it comes to hurricanes, just a slight error in the track can change the intensity. On Wednesday when the storm was heading into the coast as a Tropical storm it ended up making more of a NE turn. This turn became very crucial to the forecast. As the storm shifted Humberto was able to gain more momentum from the warm waters and this led to additional strengthening.
As we look back on this storm and others like the quick developing Felix, it is one more reminder that storms still remain somewhat unpredictable. The dangers always remain very high whenever we talk about hurricanes. Remember, that each storm is unique and staying alert on the weather is your best way to stay prepared.
All it takes is one day...
For more tips on getting ready for a storm and the tropics, click on our HURRICANE CENTRAL section.