Bill Karins, Meteorologist

As we head toward the weekend the big weather question is, how many active tropical systems will we be tracking? There is the possibility we could have four at the same time but most likely we will have two. The map below shows the four areas of concern.

One of the four is Tropical Storm Karen. This large system is far away from any land areas and should remain a tropical system over the next 10 days. Odds are that Karen will head into the Central Atlantic in 5-6 days but that’s not set in stone. There is still a chance that a large trough will miss Karen and she would re-curve west just north of Puerto Rico. We will find out this weekend.

Of the other three systems, the one with the best chance to become our next Tropical Depression was the low in the Southern Gulf just off the Coast of Mexico. It is now Tropical Depression 13. The storm will slowly drift near the Mexican coastline for a few days before moving over land. There are no indications that this low would head for the Gulf Coast at this time.

The other two areas of showers and thunderstorms have the odds stacked against them for development. One area is currently located between Cuba and South Florida. This is a mid to upper level low and should move to the NW tonight. Upper level winds are strong over this system so no development is expected. The other area of concern is probably the most fascinating.

A strong tropical wave I’ve been tracking for the last four days is now SW of Puerto Rico. Despite unfavorable upper level winds, this wave continues to produce intermittent bursts of strong thunderstorms. A check of the Puerto Rico radar from our NBC Telemundo station shows no signs of a low level circulation. This wave of unsettled weather will head across Puerto Rico on Wednesday and then over Dominica Republic on Thursday. If and this is a really big IF, the wave or weak low could make it to Friday it would have a chance to develop as it moves towards Florida. Most likely the wave will dissipate over the high mountains of the Dominican Republic, but it’s been resilient so far.

Check back for an update on Wed.