Bill Karins, Meteorologist

Another busy day of preparations has come to an end. In order to get the best information out to those who need it in the days ahead, we are organizing everything possible now. We haven't forgotten about Erin but Dean has the potential to be the strongest threatening hurricane since Wilma in ‘05.

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Erin will remain a weak system and bring heavy rain to Texas over the next three days. Flooding is the greatest threat. The wind and waves will not be an issue. Erin will dissipate by Friday night.

Dean, on the other hand, has many people scared in the Caribbean. As long as Dean avoids the high terrain of Cuba and the Dominican Republic, it will have a very good chance of getting to Major Hurricane Cat 3 or higher strength. Besides the interaction with land, the other key to the forecast is a trough now over the Bahamas. Almost all the computers weaken this trough into a cut-off low and quickly shift it westward in the next three days. This would keep the hostile shear away from Dean.

The long-term path of Dean will depend on how strong the ridge to the north of Dean remains. If it stays strong through the weekend, Dean likely heads to Mexico (Yucatan). If the ridge weakens, Dean would be allowed to turn more to the north and enter the Gulf of Mexico. I'll wait at least a day before I speculate any more than that.

What is becoming clearer is that the East Coast is looking better while residents along the Gulf need to watch closely. Should all be very interesting as it unfold in the days ahead.

-BK