Bill Karins, Meteorologist

Dean tasting land for the first time overnight but it won't be the last. Dean's burst of intensity Thursday has this storm looking like a classic memorable hurricane. The question now is what are will be remembered for being devastated by Dean?

The leading candidates are the Island of Jamaica and Mexico from Cancun to Cozumel. It's worth noting how many times Jamaica has been projected to be in the eye of the storm only to narrowly avoid major destruction.

THE LATEST: Hurricane Central

Ivan for some unknown reason danced around the Island like a shield protected it. I'll never forget that one. So unless you believe in favorable protective curses everyone on Jamaica should start preparing for the worst.

Next stop on the Dean express will most likely be the Yucatan. This would be Monday night. Dean's path near Western Cuba or near Mexico is the key to the forecast. Before I talk scenario’s let me say there is no good forecast for everyone. Someone at some point will have to deal with a powerful Dean.

#1 Dean heads more West than North and plows into Belize. Bad for them but then Dean dies over land more quickly. (Least likely)

#2 Dean heads just North of due west heading and hits Cozumel to Cancun very hard just like Wilma did. Would be another devastating blow to the region and tourism. Then dean weakens and hits Northern Mexico or South Texas as a Cat 2 or 3. (Most Likely)

#3 The ridge steering Dean weakens more than expected allowing Dean to head more northward. This track would put Western Cuba in danger. This track would also support a stronger Dean entering the Gulf. The storm would then head NW towards either Texas or Louisiana as a powerful hurricane. (Growing possibility)