Gary Archibald, Weathercaster

The latest talk regarding what is forecasted to be a very active Atlantic hurricane season is what it is. The core meteorological science, statistical data analysis, and storm track history in the Atlantic leads many of us to believe that we are likely to see hurricane development over the next few weeks…perhaps sooner. The recent Atlantic hurricane projection calls for 13 named storms – of which a whopping 7 to 9 will likely become hurricanes...3 to 5 of these are expected to be severe (classified as Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). This is serious business.

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The ingredients are on the table. Warm Atlantic Basin water temperatures (80.8 degrees F in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa) are serving as the sustainable fuel for these potentially massive complexes. Factor in the Azores high shifting to the north… I’ve had had countless discussions about this tropical season with my colleague meteorologist Mike Dangolovich…the man lives and breathes the weather… I call him the Weather Plus guru… A well-deserved title I might add for this highly intelligent and respected gentleman, a great resource for our team. We have looked at countless models and the data since last week suggested that the Azores high pressure system was likely (and now has as Mike forecasted) to shift north…which in turn (not to over simplify the dynamics and implications for the Atlantic/West African wave formation) will in part, pave the way for a conveyor-belt like pathway for storm development in the region of the Cape Verde Islands.

Conditions look ripe for this depression to intensify.

The bottom-line – coupled together with the wave after wave of disturbances traversing the Sub-Sahara (from Ethiopia westward to the coast where waves exist the western African coastal nations of Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone), the lighter trade winds in the Atlantic Basin, warm ocean water temperatures as mentioned, and very little if any systematic formations that would inhibit development and an east to west pathway towards the Caribbean, northern South America, Central America, Mexico and the Gulf region as well as the continental USA – this 2007 Atlantic hurricane season may become very busy for all of us here at NBC Weather Plus. We can only wait and see.

By the way – thanks Mike for helping to keep us on track with the rest of the team (kudos to meteorologist Kevin Maloney as well – good job Carney!)

Know that we are always working away, behind the cameras… to deliver the goods – what you need to know about the active, severe, and tropical weather around the clock!

Regards,

GA