Al Roker's Blog

Hey, folks. The Christmas countdown is on, and winter's official start is less than a month away.

And as daylight gets shorter and we bring out our scarves and mittens, most people are wondering just how cold a winter it will be.

According to the wise men and women of the National Weather Service, this will be a warmer winter than usual. Now I'm not saying you should pack up the sweaters and coats, but it looks there won't be many extreme cold snaps.

Why is this winter supposed to be on the warmer side? Well, last week I talked about the inactive Atlantic hurricane season, and I mentioned El Niño. So what is El Niño and why is a weather phenomenon named after a male child?

El Niño is a warming of sea surface temperatures along parts of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. This warming of the ocean can help spur large-scale wind and atmospheric changes. When major wind patterns change globally it can have huge effects.

Global weather is always looking to balance out extremes, so when El Niño changes wind patterns around the world, you often see opposite weather patterns.

The key words here are "opposite patterns." In an El Niño year, places with cold winters will experience milder conditions. Areas that have dry warm winters may see more rain.

As for the name 'El Niño,' since the effects of this weather phenomenon happen off the coast of South America around Christmas time, it was dubbed 'El Niño,' which is Spanish for 'The Christ Child.'

So if you live in an area whose winter is made warmer by El Niño, you may just find yourself singing 'Feliz Navidad' all season.

Stay tuned to me on the Today Show and to Weather Plus and WeatherPlus.com to see what the effects of El Niño bring to your neck of the woods this winter.

Posted by Al Roker at 05:51 PM | Permalink

Hey Gang,

Before last year’s historic hurricane season, I’ll bet that few of you could have named off the last day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Every year, that day falls on November 30, but this year, seems like it’s about two months too late.

With no hurricanes making landfall in 2006, the hype surrounding the hurricane season seems like a distant memory.

But hindsight is 20-20, as they say. The blitz about hurricane preparedness may seem over the top now, but it was a necessary response to the tragedy of the monstrous 2005 season.

So why was 2005 so intense and 2006 (so far) so slow? Most climate experts agree we're in a 10-20 year warming trend. Warmer weather means the oceans heat up more and earlier than usual, which leads to predictions of stronger and longer hurricane seasons. (For more on how hurricanes are formed, check out weatherplus.com's interactive tool Hurricanes 101.) This would help explain the record-breaking storms of 2005.

But new research shows that the difference between an intense hurricane season and a lackluster one could all come down to dust. Researchers have found that Saharan dust storms containing tiny specks of dust appear to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Another explanation for this year's slow season could be due to El Nino conditions which create higher ocean temperatures that actually inhibit hurricanes by increasing crosswinds over the Caribbean. This vertical wind shear can rip storms apart or even stop them from forming.

Now, while this has been a slow season so far, it doesn't mean it's over yet.

Though November 30 is the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season, weather doesn't always cooperate with man-made schedules. Last year, Tropical Storm Zeta formed in the Atlantic Ocean on December 30th! So stay tuned to me on the Today Show and to Weather Plus and WeatherPlus.com to see what the rest of the 2006 season still has in store.

Posted by Al Roker at 03:16 PM | Permalink